Krabi FC 2–2 Nakhon Ratchasima FC: Result & Stats

Krabi FC

FT

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 2

Nakhon Ratchasima FC

1/28/2024

Thai League 2 · Round 21Krabi Provincial Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Krabi FC31%

×Draw27%

Nakhon Ratchasima FC42%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Krabi FCExpected goals in this matchNakhon Ratchasima FC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.11

1.36

Krabi FC

1.11

Nakhon Ratchasima FC

1.36

Nakhon Ratchasima FC creates 23% more chances

Season form · 48 home / 17 away

1.04

creates per match

1.65

1.08

allows per match

1.18

creates per match

Krabi FC

1.04

Nakhon Ratchasima FC

1.65

allows per match

Krabi FC

1.08

Nakhon Ratchasima FC

1.18

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Krabi FC+0.00on par

Nakhon Ratchasima FC+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Krabi FC ↓

Nakhon Ratchasima FC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–112%

0–28%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–113%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Krabi FC or draw

58%

Krabi FC or Nakhon Ratchasima FC

73%

Draw or Nakhon Ratchasima FC

69%

Winning margin

Krabi FC wins by 2+

12%

Nakhon Ratchasima FC wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

Krabi FC 1+ goals

67%

Krabi FC 2+ goals

30%

Krabi FC 3+ goals

10%

Nakhon Ratchasima FC 1+ goals

74%

Nakhon Ratchasima FC 2+ goals

39%

Nakhon Ratchasima FC 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Krabi FC (draw refunded)

42%

Nakhon Ratchasima FC (draw refunded)

58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Krabi FC at home — creates 1.04, concedes 1.08 · 48 matches

Nakhon Ratchasima FC away — creates 1.65, concedes 1.18 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Krabi FC attack 1.04 + Nakhon Ratchasima FC defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.11

Nakhon Ratchasima FC attack 1.65 + Krabi FC defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Krabi FC scores more

31%

level

27%

Nakhon Ratchasima FC scores more

42%

Nakhon Ratchasima FC at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Nakhon Ratchasima FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff