Nakhon Ratchasima FC 1–4 Chiangrai United

Nakhon Ratchasima FC

FT

1 – 4

HT: 1 – 0

Chiangrai United

S. Kunmee 38'

S. Suvannaseat 90+3'

J. Emaviwe 90+2'

N. Sayriya 72' (OG)

Júlio César 57'

3/29/2025

League #296 · Round 27His Majesty the King's 80th Birthday Anniversary 5th December 2007 Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Nakhon Ratchasima FC38%

×Draw27%

Chiangrai United35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Nakhon Ratchasima FCExpected goals in this matchChiangrai United

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.30

1.23

Nakhon Ratchasima FC

1.30

Chiangrai United

1.23

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 23 home / 20 away

1.35

creates per match

1.15

1.30

allows per match

1.25

creates per match

Nakhon Ratchasima FC

1.35

Chiangrai United

1.15

allows per match

Nakhon Ratchasima FC

1.30

Chiangrai United

1.25

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Nakhon Ratchasima FC+0.00on par

Chiangrai United+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nakhon Ratchasima FC ↓

Chiangrai United →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

46%54%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Nakhon Ratchasima FC or draw

65%

Nakhon Ratchasima FC or Chiangrai United

73%

Draw or Chiangrai United

62%

Winning margin

Nakhon Ratchasima FC wins by 2+

17%

Chiangrai United wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Nakhon Ratchasima FC 1+ goals

73%

Nakhon Ratchasima FC 2+ goals

37%

Nakhon Ratchasima FC 3+ goals

14%

Chiangrai United 1+ goals

71%

Chiangrai United 2+ goals

35%

Chiangrai United 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Nakhon Ratchasima FC (draw refunded)

52%

Chiangrai United (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nakhon Ratchasima FC at home — creates 1.35, concedes 1.30 · 23 matches

Chiangrai United away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.25 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nakhon Ratchasima FC attack 1.35 + Chiangrai United defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.30

Chiangrai United attack 1.15 + Nakhon Ratchasima FC defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Nakhon Ratchasima FC scores more

38%

level

27%

Chiangrai United scores more

35%

Nakhon Ratchasima FC at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Nakhon Ratchasima FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

6

J. Emaviwe

Chiangrai United · M

7.9

Match Events

38'

S. Kunmee↳ Dennis Murillo

45+2'

Supawit Romphopak

46'

J. Emaviwe← S. Kannoo

46'

P. Phanitchakun← Ralph

57'

Júlio César↳ Carlos Iury

60'

N. Biesamrit← N. Jaroenbut

61'

Dudu Lima← Deyvison Fernandes

68'

Lee Jong-CheonCard upgrade

70'

Lee Jong-Cheon

71'

W. Nueangprakaew← S. Kunmee

72'

N. SayriyaOwn goal

77'

S. Suvannaseat← P. Phanitchakun

78'

Nattanan Biesamrit

79'

Sanukran Thinjom

81'

A. Mungdee← T. Paibulkijcharoen

82'

Lee Seung-Won← Carlos Iury

90+6'

Settasit SuvannaseatGoal confirmed

90'

M. Promsawat← S. Thinjom

90+2'

J. Emaviwe

90+3'

S. Suvannaseat↳ Lee Seung-Won

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

NakhonChiangrai

Overview

47%Possession53%

7Total Shots19

3Corners5

17Fouls14

Shots

7Total Shots19

2On Target7

5Off Target5

0Blocked7

4Inside Box11

3Outside Box8

Passing

47%Possession53%

260Total Passes300

190Accurate Passes234

73%Pass Accuracy78%

Goalkeeping

4Saves1

Discipline

17Fouls14

2Yellow Cards1

1Red Cards0

0Offsides3