Chiangrai United 2–0 Nakhon Ratchasima FC

Chiangrai United

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Nakhon Ratchasima FC

Victor Cardozo 67'

Helio 11'

11/8/2025

League #296 · Round 11Leo Chiangrai Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Chiangrai United49%

×Draw26%

Nakhon Ratchasima FC25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Chiangrai UnitedExpected goals in this matchNakhon Ratchasima FC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.54

1.02

Chiangrai United

1.54

Nakhon Ratchasima FC

1.02

Chiangrai United creates 51% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 21 away

1.50

creates per match

1.05

1.00

allows per match

1.57

creates per match

Chiangrai United

1.50

Nakhon Ratchasima FC

1.05

allows per match

Chiangrai United

1.00

Nakhon Ratchasima FC

1.57

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Chiangrai United+0.00on par

Nakhon Ratchasima FC+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chiangrai United ↓

Nakhon Ratchasima FC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Chiangrai United or draw

75%

Chiangrai United or Nakhon Ratchasima FC

74%

Draw or Nakhon Ratchasima FC

51%

Winning margin

Chiangrai United wins by 2+

25%

Nakhon Ratchasima FC wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Chiangrai United 1+ goals

79%

Chiangrai United 2+ goals

45%

Chiangrai United 3+ goals

20%

Nakhon Ratchasima FC 1+ goals

64%

Nakhon Ratchasima FC 2+ goals

27%

Nakhon Ratchasima FC 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Chiangrai United (draw refunded)

66%

Nakhon Ratchasima FC (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chiangrai United at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.00 · 18 matches

Nakhon Ratchasima FC away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.57 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chiangrai United attack 1.50 + Nakhon Ratchasima FC defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.54

Nakhon Ratchasima FC attack 1.05 + Chiangrai United defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Chiangrai United scores more

49%

level

26%

Nakhon Ratchasima FC scores more

25%

Chiangrai United at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Chiangrai United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

36

T. Noorach

Nakhon Ratchasima FC · G

8.5

Match Events

11'

Helio↳ C. Iury

42'

Bukkoree Lemdee

46'

A. Mungdee← C. Phimpsang

60'

Hirotaka Mita

61'

P. Phanichakul← T. Jaihan

62'

Thawatchai Inprakhon

64'

P. Jeenthai← Martinez Viti

67'

Victor Cardozo↳ Gabriel Henrique

69'

S. Thinjom← T. Inprakhon

69'

C. Phutonyong← M. Promsawat

69'

P. Hanrattana← S. Paso

70'

B. Mamadou← B. Lemdee

78'

P. Phoptham← I. Enomoto

78'

Dudu← Gabriel Henrique

81'

Sanukran Thinjom

82'

D. Darbellay← J. Sanmahung

90+5'

Phoptham Pornkod

90+2'

Chinngoen Phutonyong

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ChiangraiNakhon

Overview

44%Possession56%

11Total Shots6

6Corners3

20Fouls11

Shots

11Total Shots6

8On Target1

1Off Target4

2Blocked1

6Inside Box3

5Outside Box3

Passing

44%Possession56%

289Total Passes379

227Accurate Passes312

79%Pass Accuracy82%

Goalkeeping

1Saves6

Discipline

20Fouls11

4Yellow Cards2

0Offsides2