Nakhon Pathom 1–0 Khonkaen: Result & Stats

Nakhon Pathom

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Khonkaen

2/19/2022

Thai League 2 · Round 24Nakhon Pathom Municipality Sport School Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 65+ matches

Nakhon Pathom50%

×Draw25%

Khonkaen25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Nakhon PathomExpected goals in this matchKhonkaen

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.56

1.03

Nakhon Pathom

1.56

Khonkaen

1.03

Nakhon Pathom creates 51% more chances

Season form · 69 home / 65 away

1.46

creates per match

1.02

1.04

allows per match

1.66

creates per match

Nakhon Pathom

1.46

Khonkaen

1.02

allows per match

Nakhon Pathom

1.04

Khonkaen

1.66

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Nakhon Pathom+0.00on par

Khonkaen+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nakhon Pathom ↓

Khonkaen →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Nakhon Pathom or draw

75%

Nakhon Pathom or Khonkaen

75%

Draw or Khonkaen

50%

Winning margin

Nakhon Pathom wins by 2+

26%

Khonkaen wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Nakhon Pathom 1+ goals

79%

Nakhon Pathom 2+ goals

46%

Nakhon Pathom 3+ goals

21%

Khonkaen 1+ goals

64%

Khonkaen 2+ goals

28%

Khonkaen 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Nakhon Pathom (draw refunded)

66%

Khonkaen (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nakhon Pathom at home — creates 1.46, concedes 1.04 · 69 matches

Khonkaen away — creates 1.02, concedes 1.66 · 65 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nakhon Pathom attack 1.46 + Khonkaen defence 1.66 → ÷2 → 1.56

Khonkaen attack 1.02 + Nakhon Pathom defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Nakhon Pathom scores more

50%

level

25%

Khonkaen scores more

25%

Nakhon Pathom at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Nakhon Pathom will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff