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Khonkaen vs Nakhon Pathom — Thai League 2 2018

Khonkaen
Khonkaen
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Nakhon Pathom
Nakhon Pathom
10/13/2021Thai League 2Thai League 2 · Round 8Khon Kaen Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 65+ matches

Khonkaen40%
×Draw28%
Nakhon Pathom32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Khonkaen
1.23
Nakhon Pathom
1.06

Khonkaen creates 16% more chances

Season form · 65 home / 70 away

creates per match

Khonkaen
1.45
Nakhon Pathom
1.04

allows per match

Khonkaen
1.09
Nakhon Pathom
1.01

finishing

Khonkaen+0.00on par
Nakhon Pathom+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Khonkaen ↓

Nakhon Pathom →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Khonkaen or draw
68%
Khonkaen or Nakhon Pathom
72%
Draw or Nakhon Pathom
60%

Winning margin

Khonkaen wins by 2+
17%
Nakhon Pathom wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Khonkaen 1+ goals
71%
Khonkaen 2+ goals
35%
Khonkaen 3+ goals
13%
Nakhon Pathom 1+ goals
65%
Nakhon Pathom 2+ goals
29%
Nakhon Pathom 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Khonkaen (draw refunded)
56%
Nakhon Pathom (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Khonkaen at home — creates 1.45, concedes 1.09 · 65 matches

Nakhon Pathom away — creates 1.04, concedes 1.01 · 70 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Khonkaen attack 1.45 + Nakhon Pathom defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 1.23

Nakhon Pathom attack 1.04 + Khonkaen defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Khonkaen scores more
40%
level
28%
Nakhon Pathom scores more
32%

Khonkaen at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Khonkaen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Khonkaen vs Nakhon Pathom

Khonkaen beat Nakhon Pathom 1-0 in Thai League 2 on October 13, 2021.

The match was played at Khon Kaen Stadium in Khon Kaen.