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Nakhon Pathom vs Esan Pattaya — Thai League 2 2018

Nakhon Pathom
Nakhon Pathom
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Esan Pattaya
Esan Pattaya
10/17/2025Thai League 2Thai League 2 · Round 9Nakhon Pathom Municipality Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Nakhon Pathom43%
×Draw27%
Esan Pattaya29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Nakhon Pathom
1.36
Esan Pattaya
1.07

Nakhon Pathom creates 27% more chances

Season form · 69 home / 51 away

creates per match

Nakhon Pathom
1.46
Esan Pattaya
1.10

allows per match

Nakhon Pathom
1.04
Esan Pattaya
1.27

finishing

Nakhon Pathom+0.00on par
Esan Pattaya+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nakhon Pathom ↓

Esan Pattaya →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Nakhon Pathom or draw
71%
Nakhon Pathom or Esan Pattaya
73%
Draw or Esan Pattaya
57%

Winning margin

Nakhon Pathom wins by 2+
20%
Esan Pattaya wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Nakhon Pathom 1+ goals
74%
Nakhon Pathom 2+ goals
39%
Nakhon Pathom 3+ goals
16%
Esan Pattaya 1+ goals
66%
Esan Pattaya 2+ goals
29%
Esan Pattaya 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Nakhon Pathom (draw refunded)
60%
Esan Pattaya (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nakhon Pathom at home — creates 1.46, concedes 1.04 · 69 matches

Esan Pattaya away — creates 1.10, concedes 1.27 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nakhon Pathom attack 1.46 + Esan Pattaya defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.36

Esan Pattaya attack 1.10 + Nakhon Pathom defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Nakhon Pathom scores more
43%
level
27%
Esan Pattaya scores more
29%

Nakhon Pathom at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Nakhon Pathom will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Nakhon Pathom vs Esan Pattaya

Nakhon Pathom and Esan Pattaya drew 1-1 in Thai League 2 on October 17, 2025.

The match was played at Nakhon Pathom Municipality Stadium in Nakhon Pathom.