Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Esan Pattaya vs Nakhon Pathom — Thai League 2 2018

Esan Pattaya
Esan Pattaya
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Nakhon Pathom
Nakhon Pathom
2/18/2026Thai League 2Thai League 2 · Round 25Nongprue Municipality Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 50+ matches

Esan Pattaya37%
×Draw28%
Nakhon Pathom35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Esan Pattaya
1.17
Nakhon Pathom
1.12

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 50 home / 70 away

creates per match

Esan Pattaya
1.32
Nakhon Pathom
1.04

allows per match

Esan Pattaya
1.20
Nakhon Pathom
1.01

finishing

Esan Pattaya+0.00on par
Nakhon Pathom+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Esan Pattaya ↓

Nakhon Pathom →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Esan Pattaya or draw
65%
Esan Pattaya or Nakhon Pathom
72%
Draw or Nakhon Pathom
63%

Winning margin

Esan Pattaya wins by 2+
16%
Nakhon Pathom wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Esan Pattaya 1+ goals
69%
Esan Pattaya 2+ goals
33%
Esan Pattaya 3+ goals
11%
Nakhon Pathom 1+ goals
67%
Nakhon Pathom 2+ goals
31%
Nakhon Pathom 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Esan Pattaya (draw refunded)
52%
Nakhon Pathom (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Esan Pattaya at home — creates 1.32, concedes 1.20 · 50 matches

Nakhon Pathom away — creates 1.04, concedes 1.01 · 70 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Esan Pattaya attack 1.32 + Nakhon Pathom defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 1.17

Nakhon Pathom attack 1.04 + Esan Pattaya defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.12

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Esan Pattaya scores more
37%
level
28%
Nakhon Pathom scores more
35%

Esan Pattaya at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Esan Pattaya will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Esan Pattaya vs Nakhon Pathom

Esan Pattaya and Nakhon Pathom drew 1-1 in Thai League 2 on February 18, 2026.

The match was played at Nongprue Municipality Stadium.