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Najran vs Arar — Division 1 2018

Najran
Najran
FT
1 – 1
Arar
Arar
3/10/2021Division 1Division 1 · Round 25Prince Hathloul Bin Abdul Aziz Sport City Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Najran51%
×Draw27%
Arar22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Najran
1.44
Arar
0.86

Najran creates 67% more chances

Season form · 76 home / 19 away

creates per match

Najran
1.13
Arar
0.47

allows per match

Najran
1.26
Arar
1.74

finishing

Najran+0.00on par
Arar+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Najran ↓

Arar →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–112%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Najran or draw
78%
Najran or Arar
73%
Draw or Arar
49%

Winning margin

Najran wins by 2+
25%
Arar wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Najran 1+ goals
76%
Najran 2+ goals
42%
Najran 3+ goals
18%
Arar 1+ goals
58%
Arar 2+ goals
21%
Arar 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Najran (draw refunded)
69%
Arar (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Najran at home — creates 1.13, concedes 1.26 · 76 matches

Arar away — creates 0.47, concedes 1.74 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Najran attack 1.13 + Arar defence 1.74 → ÷2 → 1.44

Arar attack 0.47 + Najran defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 0.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Najran scores more
51%
level
27%
Arar scores more
22%

Najran at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Najran will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Division 1: Najran 1–1 Arar

Najran and Arar drew 1-1 in Division 1 on March 10, 2021.

The match was played at Prince Hathloul Bin Abdul Aziz Sport City Stadium in Najran.