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Arar vs Najran — Division 1 2018

Arar
Arar
FT
1 – 1
Najran
Najran
11/25/2020Division 1Division 1 · Round 6Prince Abdullah Bin Masaad Sport City Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Arar31%
×Draw27%
Najran41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Arar
1.11
Najran
1.31

Najran creates 18% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 77 away

creates per match

Arar
1.00
Najran
1.10

allows per match

Arar
1.53
Najran
1.23

finishing

Arar+0.00on par
Najran+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Arar ↓

Najran →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–112%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Arar or draw
59%
Arar or Najran
73%
Draw or Najran
69%

Winning margin

Arar wins by 2+
12%
Najran wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Arar 1+ goals
67%
Arar 2+ goals
30%
Arar 3+ goals
10%
Najran 1+ goals
73%
Najran 2+ goals
38%
Najran 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Arar (draw refunded)
43%
Najran (draw refunded)
57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Arar at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.53 · 19 matches

Najran away — creates 1.10, concedes 1.23 · 77 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Arar attack 1.00 + Najran defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.11

Najran attack 1.10 + Arar defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Arar scores more
31%
level
27%
Najran scores more
41%

Najran at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Najran will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Arar 1 – 1 Najran

Arar and Najran drew 1-1 in Division 1 on November 25, 2020.

The match was played at Prince Abdullah Bin Masaad Sport City Stadium in Arar.