Najran 0–1 Al-Faisaly FC: Result & Stats

Najran

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Al-Faisaly FC

11/2/2022

Division 1 · Round 10Prince Hathloul Bin Abdul Aziz Sport City Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 68+ matches

Najran32%

×Draw27%

Al-Faisaly FC42%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

NajranExpected goals in this matchAl-Faisaly FC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.15

1.36

Najran

1.15

Al-Faisaly FC

1.36

Al-Faisaly FC creates 18% more chances

Season form · 76 home / 68 away

1.13

creates per match

1.47

1.26

allows per match

1.18

creates per match

Najran

1.13

Al-Faisaly FC

1.47

allows per match

Najran

1.26

Al-Faisaly FC

1.18

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Najran+0.00on par

Al-Faisaly FC+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Najran ↓

Al-Faisaly FC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–111%

0–28%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–113%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

46%54%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Najran or draw

58%

Najran or Al-Faisaly FC

73%

Draw or Al-Faisaly FC

68%

Winning margin

Najran wins by 2+

13%

Al-Faisaly FC wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Najran 1+ goals

68%

Najran 2+ goals

32%

Najran 3+ goals

11%

Al-Faisaly FC 1+ goals

74%

Al-Faisaly FC 2+ goals

39%

Al-Faisaly FC 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Najran (draw refunded)

43%

Al-Faisaly FC (draw refunded)

57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Najran at home — creates 1.13, concedes 1.26 · 76 matches

Al-Faisaly FC away — creates 1.47, concedes 1.18 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Najran attack 1.13 + Al-Faisaly FC defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.15

Al-Faisaly FC attack 1.47 + Najran defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Najran scores more

32%

level

27%

Al-Faisaly FC scores more

42%

Al-Faisaly FC at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Al-Faisaly FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff