Al-Faisaly FC 2–2 Najran: Result & Stats

Al-Faisaly FC

FT

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Najran

5/5/2023

Division 1 · Round 27Al Majma'ah Sports City Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 68+ matches

Al-Faisaly FC42%

×Draw27%

Najran31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Al-Faisaly FCExpected goals in this matchNajran

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.39

1.16

Al-Faisaly FC

1.39

Najran

1.16

Al-Faisaly FC creates 20% more chances

Season form · 68 home / 77 away

1.54

creates per match

1.10

1.21

allows per match

1.23

creates per match

Al-Faisaly FC

1.54

Najran

1.10

allows per match

Al-Faisaly FC

1.21

Najran

1.23

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Al-Faisaly FC+0.00on par

Najran+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al-Faisaly FC ↓

Najran →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Al-Faisaly FC or draw

69%

Al-Faisaly FC or Najran

73%

Draw or Najran

58%

Winning margin

Al-Faisaly FC wins by 2+

20%

Najran wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Al-Faisaly FC 1+ goals

75%

Al-Faisaly FC 2+ goals

40%

Al-Faisaly FC 3+ goals

16%

Najran 1+ goals

69%

Najran 2+ goals

32%

Najran 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Al-Faisaly FC (draw refunded)

57%

Najran (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al-Faisaly FC at home — creates 1.54, concedes 1.21 · 68 matches

Najran away — creates 1.10, concedes 1.23 · 77 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al-Faisaly FC attack 1.54 + Najran defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.39

Najran attack 1.10 + Al-Faisaly FC defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Al-Faisaly FC scores more

42%

level

27%

Najran scores more

31%

Al-Faisaly FC at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Al-Faisaly FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff