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Najran vs Al Bukayriyah — Division 1 2018

Najran
Najran
FT
1 – 1
Al Bukayriyah
Al Bukayriyah
10/17/2019Division 1Division 1 · Round 9Najran Sport City Center

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 76+ matches

Najran37%
×Draw28%
Al Bukayriyah35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Najran
1.19
Al Bukayriyah
1.15

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 76 home / 89 away

creates per match

Najran
1.13
Al Bukayriyah
1.03

allows per match

Najran
1.26
Al Bukayriyah
1.26

finishing

Najran+0.00on par
Al Bukayriyah+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Najran ↓

Al Bukayriyah →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
41%59%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Najran or draw
65%
Najran or Al Bukayriyah
72%
Draw or Al Bukayriyah
63%

Winning margin

Najran wins by 2+
16%
Al Bukayriyah wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Najran 1+ goals
70%
Najran 2+ goals
33%
Najran 3+ goals
12%
Al Bukayriyah 1+ goals
68%
Al Bukayriyah 2+ goals
32%
Al Bukayriyah 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Najran (draw refunded)
51%
Al Bukayriyah (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Najran at home — creates 1.13, concedes 1.26 · 76 matches

Al Bukayriyah away — creates 1.03, concedes 1.26 · 89 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Najran attack 1.13 + Al Bukayriyah defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.19

Al Bukayriyah attack 1.03 + Najran defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Najran scores more
37%
level
28%
Al Bukayriyah scores more
35%

Najran at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Najran will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Najran vs Al Bukayriyah

Najran and Al Bukayriyah drew 1-1 in Division 1 on October 17, 2019.

The match was played at Najran Sport City Center in Najran.