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Al Bukayriyah vs Najran — Division 1 2018

Al Bukayriyah
Al Bukayriyah
FT
1 – 0
Najran
Najran
4/6/2021Division 1Division 1 · Round 30Al-Amal Club Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 77+ matches

Al Bukayriyah41%
×Draw28%
Najran31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al Bukayriyah
1.28
Najran
1.07

Al Bukayriyah creates 20% more chances

Season form · 89 home / 77 away

creates per match

Al Bukayriyah
1.33
Najran
1.10

allows per match

Al Bukayriyah
1.04
Najran
1.23

finishing

Al Bukayriyah+0.00on par
Najran+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Bukayriyah ↓

Najran →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Al Bukayriyah or draw
69%
Al Bukayriyah or Najran
72%
Draw or Najran
59%

Winning margin

Al Bukayriyah wins by 2+
18%
Najran wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Al Bukayriyah 1+ goals
72%
Al Bukayriyah 2+ goals
37%
Al Bukayriyah 3+ goals
14%
Najran 1+ goals
66%
Najran 2+ goals
29%
Najran 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Al Bukayriyah (draw refunded)
57%
Najran (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Bukayriyah at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.04 · 89 matches

Najran away — creates 1.10, concedes 1.23 · 77 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Bukayriyah attack 1.33 + Najran defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.28

Najran attack 1.10 + Al Bukayriyah defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Al Bukayriyah scores more
41%
level
28%
Najran scores more
31%

Al Bukayriyah at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Al Bukayriyah will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Division 1: Al Bukayriyah 1–0 Najran

Al Bukayriyah beat Najran 1-0 in Division 1 on April 6, 2021.

The match was played at Al-Amal Club Stadium in Al Bukayriyah.