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Naivas vs Kajiado — Super League 2018

Naivas
Naivas
FT
3 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Kajiado
Kajiado
5/25/2024Super LeagueSuper League · Round 33Kenyatta Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

Naivas66%
×Draw20%
Kajiado14%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Naivas
2.08
Kajiado
0.83

Naivas creates 151% more chances

Season form · 92 home / 35 away

creates per match

Naivas
1.66
Kajiado
0.94

allows per match

Naivas
0.73
Kajiado
2.51

finishing

Naivas+0.00on par
Kajiado+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Naivas ↓

Kajiado →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–19%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (12%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
55%45%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Naivas or draw
86%
Naivas or Kajiado
80%
Draw or Kajiado
34%

Winning margin

Naivas wins by 2+
42%
Kajiado wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Naivas 1+ goals
87%
Naivas 2+ goals
61%
Naivas 3+ goals
34%
Kajiado 1+ goals
56%
Kajiado 2+ goals
20%
Kajiado 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Naivas (draw refunded)
83%
Kajiado (draw refunded)
17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Naivas at home — creates 1.66, concedes 0.73 · 92 matches

Kajiado away — creates 0.94, concedes 2.51 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Naivas attack 1.66 + Kajiado defence 2.51 → ÷2 → 2.08

Kajiado attack 0.94 + Naivas defence 0.73 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

Naivas scores more
66%
level
20%
Kajiado scores more
14%

Naivas at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "Naivas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Naivas vs Kajiado

Naivas beat Kajiado 3-1 in Super League on May 25, 2024.

The match was played at Kenyatta Stadium in Machakos.