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Kajiado vs Naivas — Super League 2018

Kajiado
Kajiado
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Naivas
Naivas
2/26/2023Super LeagueSuper League · Round 15Ildamat Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

Kajiado36%
×Draw27%
Naivas37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kajiado
1.23
Naivas
1.25

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 35 home / 90 away

creates per match

Kajiado
1.49
Naivas
1.07

allows per match

Kajiado
1.43
Naivas
0.97

finishing

Kajiado+0.00on par
Naivas+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kajiado ↓

Naivas →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Kajiado or draw
63%
Kajiado or Naivas
73%
Draw or Naivas
64%

Winning margin

Kajiado wins by 2+
15%
Naivas wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Kajiado 1+ goals
71%
Kajiado 2+ goals
35%
Kajiado 3+ goals
13%
Naivas 1+ goals
71%
Naivas 2+ goals
36%
Naivas 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Kajiado (draw refunded)
49%
Naivas (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kajiado at home — creates 1.49, concedes 1.43 · 35 matches

Naivas away — creates 1.07, concedes 0.97 · 90 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kajiado attack 1.49 + Naivas defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 1.23

Naivas attack 1.07 + Kajiado defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Kajiado scores more
36%
level
27%
Naivas scores more
37%

Naivas at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Naivas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Super League: Kajiado 0–2 Naivas

Naivas beat Kajiado 2-0 in Super League on February 26, 2023.

The match was played at Ildamat Stadium in Kajiado.