Nairobi United 2–0 MCF: Result & Stats

Nairobi United

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

MCF

1/6/2024

Super League · Round 15Police Sacco Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

Nairobi United53%

×Draw25%

MCF21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Nairobi UnitedExpected goals in this matchMCF

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.57

0.89

Nairobi United

1.57

MCF

0.89

Nairobi United creates 76% more chances

Season form · 37 home / 90 away

1.92

creates per match

0.88

0.89

allows per match

1.22

creates per match

Nairobi United

1.92

MCF

0.88

allows per match

Nairobi United

0.89

MCF

1.22

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Nairobi United+0.00on par

MCF+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nairobi United ↓

MCF →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–18%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–112%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

45%55%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Nairobi United or draw

79%

Nairobi United or MCF

75%

Draw or MCF

47%

Winning margin

Nairobi United wins by 2+

28%

MCF wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Nairobi United 1+ goals

79%

Nairobi United 2+ goals

46%

Nairobi United 3+ goals

21%

MCF 1+ goals

59%

MCF 2+ goals

22%

MCF 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Nairobi United (draw refunded)

71%

MCF (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nairobi United at home — creates 1.92, concedes 0.89 · 37 matches

MCF away — creates 0.88, concedes 1.22 · 90 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nairobi United attack 1.92 + MCF defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.57

MCF attack 0.88 + Nairobi United defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Nairobi United scores more

53%

level

25%

MCF scores more

21%

Nairobi United at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Nairobi United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff