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MCF vs Nairobi United — Super League 2018

MCF
MCF
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Nairobi United
Nairobi United
1/25/2025Super LeagueSuper League · Round 17Kenyatta Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

MCF32%
×Draw30%
Nairobi United37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

MCF
0.98
Nairobi United
1.07

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 89 home / 37 away

creates per match

MCF
1.26
Nairobi United
1.30

allows per match

MCF
0.85
Nairobi United
0.70

finishing

MCF+0.00on par
Nairobi United+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

MCF ↓

Nairobi United →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–114%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–114%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
61%39%2.5
34%66%3.5
15%85%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

MCF or draw
63%
MCF or Nairobi United
70%
Draw or Nairobi United
68%

Winning margin

MCF wins by 2+
12%
Nairobi United wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

MCF 1+ goals
62%
MCF 2+ goals
26%
MCF 3+ goals
8%
Nairobi United 1+ goals
66%
Nairobi United 2+ goals
29%
Nairobi United 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

MCF (draw refunded)
47%
Nairobi United (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
14%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

MCF at home — creates 1.26, concedes 0.85 · 89 matches

Nairobi United away — creates 1.30, concedes 0.70 · 37 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

MCF attack 1.26 + Nairobi United defence 0.70 → ÷2 → 0.98

Nairobi United attack 1.30 + MCF defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

MCF scores more
32%
level
30%
Nairobi United scores more
37%

Nairobi United at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Nairobi United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: MCF vs Nairobi United

Nairobi United beat MCF 1-0 in Super League on January 25, 2025.

The match was played at Kenyatta Stadium in Machakos.