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Nairobi United vs Coastal Heroes — Super League 2018

Nairobi United
Nairobi United
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Coastal Heroes
Coastal Heroes
5/11/2024Super LeagueSuper League · Round 31Kasarani Annex Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

Nairobi United64%
×Draw21%
Coastal Heroes15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Nairobi United
2.01
Coastal Heroes
0.85

Nairobi United creates 136% more chances

Season form · 37 home / 72 away

creates per match

Nairobi United
1.92
Coastal Heroes
0.81

allows per match

Nairobi United
0.89
Coastal Heroes
2.11

finishing

Nairobi United+0.00on par
Coastal Heroes+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nairobi United ↓

Coastal Heroes →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–110%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Nairobi United or draw
85%
Nairobi United or Coastal Heroes
79%
Draw or Coastal Heroes
36%

Winning margin

Nairobi United wins by 2+
40%
Coastal Heroes wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Nairobi United 1+ goals
87%
Nairobi United 2+ goals
59%
Nairobi United 3+ goals
32%
Coastal Heroes 1+ goals
57%
Coastal Heroes 2+ goals
21%
Coastal Heroes 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Nairobi United (draw refunded)
81%
Coastal Heroes (draw refunded)
19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nairobi United at home — creates 1.92, concedes 0.89 · 37 matches

Coastal Heroes away — creates 0.81, concedes 2.11 · 72 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nairobi United attack 1.92 + Coastal Heroes defence 2.11 → ÷2 → 2.01

Coastal Heroes attack 0.81 + Nairobi United defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Nairobi United scores more
64%
level
21%
Coastal Heroes scores more
15%

Nairobi United at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Nairobi United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Super League: Nairobi United 0–0 Coastal Heroes

Nairobi United and Coastal Heroes drew 0-0 in Super League on May 11, 2024.

The match was played at Kasarani Annex Stadium in Nairobi.