Coastal Heroes 1–2 Nairobi United: Result & Stats

Coastal Heroes

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Nairobi United

9/22/2024

Super League · Round 1Serani Sports Ground

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

Coastal Heroes35%

×Draw28%

Nairobi United37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Coastal HeroesExpected goals in this matchNairobi United

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.13

1.17

Coastal Heroes

1.13

Nairobi United

1.17

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 73 home / 37 away

1.55

creates per match

1.30

1.04

allows per match

0.70

creates per match

Coastal Heroes

1.55

Nairobi United

1.30

allows per match

Coastal Heroes

1.04

Nairobi United

0.70

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Coastal Heroes+0.00on par

Nairobi United+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Coastal Heroes ↓

Nairobi United →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–112%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–17%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

40%60%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Coastal Heroes or draw

63%

Coastal Heroes or Nairobi United

72%

Draw or Nairobi United

65%

Winning margin

Coastal Heroes wins by 2+

14%

Nairobi United wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Coastal Heroes 1+ goals

68%

Coastal Heroes 2+ goals

31%

Coastal Heroes 3+ goals

11%

Nairobi United 1+ goals

69%

Nairobi United 2+ goals

33%

Nairobi United 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Coastal Heroes (draw refunded)

49%

Nairobi United (draw refunded)

51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Coastal Heroes at home — creates 1.55, concedes 1.04 · 73 matches

Nairobi United away — creates 1.30, concedes 0.70 · 37 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Coastal Heroes attack 1.55 + Nairobi United defence 0.70 → ÷2 → 1.13

Nairobi United attack 1.30 + Coastal Heroes defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Coastal Heroes scores more

35%

level

28%

Nairobi United scores more

37%

Nairobi United at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Nairobi United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff