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Nairobi United vs Bidco United — FKF Premier League 2025

Nairobi United
Nairobi United
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Bidco United
Bidco United
B. Omalla 89'
K. Wangaya 73'
M. Kizza 20'
2/21/2026FKF Premier LeagueFKF Premier League · Round 23Nyayo National Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Nairobi United42%
×Draw29%
Bidco United29%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Nairobi United
1.23
Bidco United
0.96

Nairobi United creates 28% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 36 away

creates per match

Nairobi United
1.41
Bidco United
0.69

allows per match

Nairobi United
1.24
Bidco United
1.06

finishing

Nairobi United+0.00on par
Bidco United+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nairobi United ↓

Bidco United →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–111%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Nairobi United or draw
71%
Nairobi United or Bidco United
71%
Draw or Bidco United
58%

Winning margin

Nairobi United wins by 2+
19%
Bidco United wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Nairobi United 1+ goals
71%
Nairobi United 2+ goals
35%
Nairobi United 3+ goals
13%
Bidco United 1+ goals
62%
Bidco United 2+ goals
25%
Bidco United 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Nairobi United (draw refunded)
60%
Bidco United (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nairobi United at home — creates 1.41, concedes 1.24 · 17 matches

Bidco United away — creates 0.69, concedes 1.06 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nairobi United attack 1.41 + Bidco United defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.23

Bidco United attack 0.69 + Nairobi United defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Nairobi United scores more
42%
level
29%
Bidco United scores more
29%

Nairobi United at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Nairobi United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

20'
M. Kizza
73'
K. Wangaya
89'
B. Omalla

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

FKF Premier League: Nairobi United 3–0 Bidco United

Nairobi United beat Bidco United 3-0 in FKF Premier League on February 21, 2026.

Goals: M. Kizza (20'), K. Wangaya (73'), B. Omalla (89').

The match was played at Nyayo National Stadium in Nairobi.