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Bidco United vs Nairobi United — FKF Premier League 2025

Bidco United
Bidco United
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Nairobi United
Nairobi United
H. Ngala 2'
10/6/2025FKF Premier LeagueFKF Premier League · Round 4Kenyatta Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Bidco United22%
×Draw32%
Nairobi United47%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bidco United
0.67
Nairobi United
1.13

Nairobi United creates 69% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 17 away

creates per match

Bidco United
0.58
Nairobi United
1.18

allows per match

Bidco United
1.08
Nairobi United
0.76

finishing

Bidco United+0.00on par
Nairobi United+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Under
  • Under73
  • Over27

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

67%No
  • No67
  • Yes33

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bidco United ↓

Nairobi United →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–017%
0–119%
0–211%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–04%
2–14%
2–22%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (19%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
83%17%1.5
54%46%2.5
27%73%3.5
11%89%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Bidco United or draw
53%
Bidco United or Nairobi United
68%
Draw or Nairobi United
78%

Winning margin

Bidco United wins by 2+
6%
Nairobi United wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Bidco United 1+ goals
49%
Bidco United 2+ goals
15%
Bidco United 3+ goals
3%
Nairobi United 1+ goals
68%
Nairobi United 2+ goals
31%
Nairobi United 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Bidco United (draw refunded)
32%
Nairobi United (draw refunded)
68%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
21%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bidco United at home — creates 0.58, concedes 1.08 · 38 matches

Nairobi United away — creates 1.18, concedes 0.76 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bidco United attack 0.58 + Nairobi United defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 0.67

Nairobi United attack 1.18 + Bidco United defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Bidco United scores more
22%
level
32%
Nairobi United scores more
47%

Nairobi United at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Nairobi United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

2'
H. Ngala

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

FKF Premier League: Bidco United 1–0 Nairobi United

Bidco United beat Nairobi United 1-0 in FKF Premier League on October 6, 2025.

Goals: H. Ngala (2').

The match was played at Kenyatta Stadium in Machakos.