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Nairobi United vs Assad — Super League 2018

Nairobi United
Nairobi United
FT
2 – 0
Assad
Assad
2/17/2024Super LeagueSuper League · Round 20Mpesa Foundation Academy

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

Nairobi United67%
×Draw20%
Assad13%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Nairobi United
2.10
Assad
0.81

Nairobi United creates 159% more chances

Season form · 37 home / 73 away

creates per match

Nairobi United
1.92
Assad
0.74

allows per match

Nairobi United
0.89
Assad
2.29

finishing

Nairobi United+0.00on par
Assad+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nairobi United ↓

Assad →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–14%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–19%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
55%45%3.5
33%67%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Nairobi United or draw
87%
Nairobi United or Assad
80%
Draw or Assad
33%

Winning margin

Nairobi United wins by 2+
43%
Assad wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Nairobi United 1+ goals
88%
Nairobi United 2+ goals
62%
Nairobi United 3+ goals
35%
Assad 1+ goals
56%
Assad 2+ goals
19%
Assad 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Nairobi United (draw refunded)
83%
Assad (draw refunded)
17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nairobi United at home — creates 1.92, concedes 0.89 · 37 matches

Assad away — creates 0.74, concedes 2.29 · 73 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nairobi United attack 1.92 + Assad defence 2.29 → ÷2 → 2.10

Assad attack 0.74 + Nairobi United defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 0.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

Nairobi United scores more
67%
level
20%
Assad scores more
13%

Nairobi United at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "Nairobi United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Nairobi United vs Assad

Nairobi United beat Assad 2-0 in Super League on February 17, 2024.

The match was played at Mpesa Foundation Academy in Thika.