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Assad vs Nairobi United — Super League 2018

Assad
Assad
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Nairobi United
Nairobi United
10/5/2024Super LeagueSuper League · Round 3Ukunda Showground

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

Assad33%
×Draw28%
Nairobi United39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Assad
1.10
Nairobi United
1.21

Nairobi United creates 10% more chances

Season form · 72 home / 37 away

creates per match

Assad
1.50
Nairobi United
1.30

allows per match

Assad
1.11
Nairobi United
0.70

finishing

Assad+0.00on par
Nairobi United+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Assad ↓

Nairobi United →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–112%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Assad or draw
61%
Assad or Nairobi United
72%
Draw or Nairobi United
67%

Winning margin

Assad wins by 2+
13%
Nairobi United wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Assad 1+ goals
67%
Assad 2+ goals
30%
Assad 3+ goals
10%
Nairobi United 1+ goals
70%
Nairobi United 2+ goals
34%
Nairobi United 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Assad (draw refunded)
46%
Nairobi United (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Assad at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.11 · 72 matches

Nairobi United away — creates 1.30, concedes 0.70 · 37 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Assad attack 1.50 + Nairobi United defence 0.70 → ÷2 → 1.10

Nairobi United attack 1.30 + Assad defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Assad scores more
33%
level
28%
Nairobi United scores more
39%

Nairobi United at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Nairobi United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Assad vs Nairobi United

Assad beat Nairobi United 1-0 in Super League on October 5, 2024.

The match was played at Ukunda Showground in Ukunda.