Nairobi Stima 4–0 Kibera Black Stars

Nairobi Stima

FT

4 – 0

Kibera Black Stars

4/8/2018

Super League · Super League - Round 11

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Nairobi Stima56%

×Draw25%

Kibera Black Stars19%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Nairobi StimaExpected goals in this matchKibera Black Stars

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.59

0.80

Nairobi Stima

1.59

Kibera Black Stars

0.80

Nairobi Stima creates 99% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 109 away

1.88

creates per match

0.96

0.65

allows per match

1.31

creates per match

Nairobi Stima

1.88

Kibera Black Stars

0.96

allows per match

Nairobi Stima

0.65

Kibera Black Stars

1.31

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Nairobi Stima+0.00on par

Kibera Black Stars+0.00on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nairobi Stima ↓

Kibera Black Stars →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–112%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Nairobi Stima or draw

81%

Nairobi Stima or Kibera Black Stars

75%

Draw or Kibera Black Stars

44%

Winning margin

Nairobi Stima wins by 2+

30%

Kibera Black Stars wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Nairobi Stima 1+ goals

80%

Nairobi Stima 2+ goals

47%

Nairobi Stima 3+ goals

21%

Kibera Black Stars 1+ goals

55%

Kibera Black Stars 2+ goals

19%

Kibera Black Stars 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Nairobi Stima (draw refunded)

75%

Kibera Black Stars (draw refunded)

25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nairobi Stima at home — creates 1.88, concedes 0.65 · 17 matches

Kibera Black Stars away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.31 · 109 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nairobi Stima attack 1.88 + Kibera Black Stars defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.59

Kibera Black Stars attack 0.96 + Nairobi Stima defence 0.65 → ÷2 → 0.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Nairobi Stima scores more

56%

level

25%

Kibera Black Stars scores more

19%

Nairobi Stima at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Nairobi Stima will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff