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Kibera Black Stars vs Nairobi Stima — Super League 2018

Kibera Black Stars
Kibera Black Stars
FT
2 – 3
Nairobi Stima
Nairobi Stima
8/31/2018Super LeagueSuper League · Super League - Round 30

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Kibera Black Stars39%
×Draw27%
Nairobi Stima34%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kibera Black Stars
1.32
Nairobi Stima
1.22

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 106 home / 16 away

creates per match

Kibera Black Stars
1.33
Nairobi Stima
1.69

allows per match

Kibera Black Stars
0.75
Nairobi Stima
1.31

finishing

Kibera Black Stars+0.00on par
Nairobi Stima+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kibera Black Stars ↓

Nairobi Stima →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Kibera Black Stars or draw
66%
Kibera Black Stars or Nairobi Stima
73%
Draw or Nairobi Stima
61%

Winning margin

Kibera Black Stars wins by 2+
18%
Nairobi Stima wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Kibera Black Stars 1+ goals
73%
Kibera Black Stars 2+ goals
38%
Kibera Black Stars 3+ goals
15%
Nairobi Stima 1+ goals
70%
Nairobi Stima 2+ goals
34%
Nairobi Stima 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Kibera Black Stars (draw refunded)
53%
Nairobi Stima (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kibera Black Stars at home — creates 1.33, concedes 0.75 · 106 matches

Nairobi Stima away — creates 1.69, concedes 1.31 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kibera Black Stars attack 1.33 + Nairobi Stima defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.32

Nairobi Stima attack 1.69 + Kibera Black Stars defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 1.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Kibera Black Stars scores more
39%
level
27%
Nairobi Stima scores more
34%

Kibera Black Stars at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Kibera Black Stars will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Kibera Black Stars vs Nairobi Stima

Nairobi Stima beat Kibera Black Stars 3-2 in Super League on August 31, 2018.