Nairobi City Stars 1–0 Modern Coast Rangers

Nairobi City Stars

FT

1 – 0

Modern Coast Rangers

7/13/2018

Super League · Super League - Round 23

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Nairobi City Stars46%

×Draw28%

Modern Coast Rangers26%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Nairobi City StarsExpected goals in this matchModern Coast Rangers

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.32

0.91

Nairobi City Stars

1.32

Modern Coast Rangers

0.91

Nairobi City Stars creates 45% more chances

Season form · 37 home / 18 away

1.14

creates per match

0.89

0.92

allows per match

1.50

creates per match

Nairobi City Stars

1.14

Modern Coast Rangers

0.89

allows per match

Nairobi City Stars

0.92

Modern Coast Rangers

1.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Nairobi City Stars+0.00on par

Modern Coast Rangers+0.00on par

Total goals

Under61
Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nairobi City Stars ↓

Modern Coast Rangers →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–110%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

39%61%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Nairobi City Stars or draw

74%

Nairobi City Stars or Modern Coast Rangers

72%

Draw or Modern Coast Rangers

54%

Winning margin

Nairobi City Stars wins by 2+

21%

Modern Coast Rangers wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Nairobi City Stars 1+ goals

73%

Nairobi City Stars 2+ goals

38%

Nairobi City Stars 3+ goals

15%

Modern Coast Rangers 1+ goals

60%

Modern Coast Rangers 2+ goals

23%

Modern Coast Rangers 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Nairobi City Stars (draw refunded)

64%

Modern Coast Rangers (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nairobi City Stars at home — creates 1.14, concedes 0.92 · 37 matches

Modern Coast Rangers away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.50 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nairobi City Stars attack 1.14 + Modern Coast Rangers defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.32

Modern Coast Rangers attack 0.89 + Nairobi City Stars defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Nairobi City Stars scores more

46%

level

28%

Modern Coast Rangers scores more

26%

Nairobi City Stars at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Nairobi City Stars will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff