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Modern Coast Rangers vs Nairobi City Stars — Super League 2018

Modern Coast Rangers
Modern Coast Rangers
FT
2 – 1
Nairobi City Stars
Nairobi City Stars
3/1/2018Super LeagueSuper League · Super League - Round 4

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Modern Coast Rangers45%
×Draw29%
Nairobi City Stars26%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Modern Coast Rangers
1.23
Nairobi City Stars
0.86

Modern Coast Rangers creates 43% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 33 away

creates per match

Modern Coast Rangers
1.19
Nairobi City Stars
0.91

allows per match

Modern Coast Rangers
0.81
Nairobi City Stars
1.27

finishing

Modern Coast Rangers+0.00on par
Nairobi City Stars+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Under
  • Under65
  • Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Modern Coast Rangers ↓

Nairobi City Stars →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–111%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
35%65%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Modern Coast Rangers or draw
74%
Modern Coast Rangers or Nairobi City Stars
71%
Draw or Nairobi City Stars
55%

Winning margin

Modern Coast Rangers wins by 2+
20%
Nairobi City Stars wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Modern Coast Rangers 1+ goals
71%
Modern Coast Rangers 2+ goals
35%
Modern Coast Rangers 3+ goals
13%
Nairobi City Stars 1+ goals
58%
Nairobi City Stars 2+ goals
21%
Nairobi City Stars 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Modern Coast Rangers (draw refunded)
63%
Nairobi City Stars (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Modern Coast Rangers at home — creates 1.19, concedes 0.81 · 16 matches

Nairobi City Stars away — creates 0.91, concedes 1.27 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Modern Coast Rangers attack 1.19 + Nairobi City Stars defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.23

Nairobi City Stars attack 0.91 + Modern Coast Rangers defence 0.81 → ÷2 → 0.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Modern Coast Rangers scores more
45%
level
29%
Nairobi City Stars scores more
26%

Modern Coast Rangers at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Modern Coast Rangers will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Super League: Modern Coast Rangers 2–1 Nairobi City Stars

Modern Coast Rangers beat Nairobi City Stars 2-1 in Super League on March 1, 2018.