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Nairobi City Stars vs GOR Mahia — FKF Premier League 2018

Nairobi City Stars
Nairobi City Stars
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
GOR Mahia
GOR Mahia
10/28/2024FKF Premier LeagueFKF Premier League · Round 7Kenyatta Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 85+ matches

Nairobi City Stars29%
×Draw28%
GOR Mahia43%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Nairobi City Stars
0.99
GOR Mahia
1.29

GOR Mahia creates 30% more chances

Season form · 85 home / 144 away

creates per match

Nairobi City Stars
1.18
GOR Mahia
1.49

allows per match

Nairobi City Stars
1.09
GOR Mahia
0.80

finishing

Nairobi City Stars+0.00on par
GOR Mahia+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nairobi City Stars ↓

GOR Mahia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–113%
0–29%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–16%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Nairobi City Stars or draw
57%
Nairobi City Stars or GOR Mahia
72%
Draw or GOR Mahia
71%

Winning margin

Nairobi City Stars wins by 2+
10%
GOR Mahia wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Nairobi City Stars 1+ goals
63%
Nairobi City Stars 2+ goals
26%
Nairobi City Stars 3+ goals
8%
GOR Mahia 1+ goals
72%
GOR Mahia 2+ goals
37%
GOR Mahia 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Nairobi City Stars (draw refunded)
40%
GOR Mahia (draw refunded)
60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nairobi City Stars at home — creates 1.18, concedes 1.09 · 85 matches

GOR Mahia away — creates 1.49, concedes 0.80 · 144 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nairobi City Stars attack 1.18 + GOR Mahia defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 0.99

GOR Mahia attack 1.49 + Nairobi City Stars defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Nairobi City Stars scores more
29%
level
28%
GOR Mahia scores more
43%

GOR Mahia at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "GOR Mahia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

FKF Premier League: Nairobi City Stars 2–1 GOR Mahia

Nairobi City Stars beat GOR Mahia 2-1 in FKF Premier League on October 28, 2024.

The match was played at Kenyatta Stadium in Machakos.