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GOR Mahia vs Nairobi City Stars — FKF Premier League 2018

GOR Mahia
GOR Mahia
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 2
Nairobi City Stars
Nairobi City Stars
5/15/2025FKF Premier LeagueFKF Premier League · Round 31Dandora Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 84+ matches

GOR Mahia49%
×Draw27%
Nairobi City Stars23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

GOR Mahia
1.39
Nairobi City Stars
0.86

GOR Mahia creates 62% more chances

Season form · 147 home / 84 away

creates per match

GOR Mahia
1.58
Nairobi City Stars
1.02

allows per match

GOR Mahia
0.70
Nairobi City Stars
1.20

finishing

GOR Mahia+0.00on par
Nairobi City Stars+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

GOR Mahia ↓

Nairobi City Stars →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
66%34%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

GOR Mahia or draw
77%
GOR Mahia or Nairobi City Stars
73%
Draw or Nairobi City Stars
51%

Winning margin

GOR Mahia wins by 2+
24%
Nairobi City Stars wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

GOR Mahia 1+ goals
75%
GOR Mahia 2+ goals
40%
GOR Mahia 3+ goals
16%
Nairobi City Stars 1+ goals
58%
Nairobi City Stars 2+ goals
21%
Nairobi City Stars 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

GOR Mahia (draw refunded)
68%
Nairobi City Stars (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

GOR Mahia at home — creates 1.58, concedes 0.70 · 147 matches

Nairobi City Stars away — creates 1.02, concedes 1.20 · 84 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

GOR Mahia attack 1.58 + Nairobi City Stars defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.39

Nairobi City Stars attack 1.02 + GOR Mahia defence 0.70 → ÷2 → 0.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

GOR Mahia scores more
49%
level
27%
Nairobi City Stars scores more
23%

GOR Mahia at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "GOR Mahia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: GOR Mahia vs Nairobi City Stars

Nairobi City Stars beat GOR Mahia 2-1 in FKF Premier League on May 15, 2025.

The match was played at Dandora Stadium in Nairobi.