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Nairobi City Stars vs AFC Leopards — FKF Premier League 2018

Nairobi City Stars
Nairobi City Stars
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
AFC Leopards
AFC Leopards
2/2/2025FKF Premier LeagueFKF Premier League · Round 19Dandora Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 85+ matches

Nairobi City Stars35%
×Draw29%
AFC Leopards36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Nairobi City Stars
1.10
AFC Leopards
1.13

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 85 home / 146 away

creates per match

Nairobi City Stars
1.18
AFC Leopards
1.17

allows per match

Nairobi City Stars
1.09
AFC Leopards
1.03

finishing

Nairobi City Stars+0.00on par
AFC Leopards+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nairobi City Stars ↓

AFC Leopards →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–112%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Nairobi City Stars or draw
64%
Nairobi City Stars or AFC Leopards
71%
Draw or AFC Leopards
65%

Winning margin

Nairobi City Stars wins by 2+
14%
AFC Leopards wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Nairobi City Stars 1+ goals
67%
Nairobi City Stars 2+ goals
30%
Nairobi City Stars 3+ goals
10%
AFC Leopards 1+ goals
68%
AFC Leopards 2+ goals
31%
AFC Leopards 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Nairobi City Stars (draw refunded)
49%
AFC Leopards (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nairobi City Stars at home — creates 1.18, concedes 1.09 · 85 matches

AFC Leopards away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.03 · 146 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nairobi City Stars attack 1.18 + AFC Leopards defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.10

AFC Leopards attack 1.17 + Nairobi City Stars defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Nairobi City Stars scores more
35%
level
29%
AFC Leopards scores more
36%

AFC Leopards at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "AFC Leopards will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

FKF Premier League: Nairobi City Stars 0–1 AFC Leopards

AFC Leopards beat Nairobi City Stars 1-0 in FKF Premier League on February 2, 2025.

The match was played at Dandora Stadium in Nairobi.