AFC Leopards 2–0 Nairobi City Stars: Result & Stats

AFC Leopards

FT

2 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Nairobi City Stars

1/21/2024

FKF Premier League · Round 18Bukhungu Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 84+ matches

AFC Leopards41%

×Draw30%

Nairobi City Stars29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AFC LeopardsExpected goals in this matchNairobi City Stars

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.17

0.94

AFC Leopards

1.17

Nairobi City Stars

0.94

AFC Leopards creates 24% more chances

Season form · 145 home / 84 away

1.15

creates per match

1.02

0.86

allows per match

1.20

creates per match

AFC Leopards

1.15

Nairobi City Stars

1.02

allows per match

AFC Leopards

0.86

Nairobi City Stars

1.20

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

AFC Leopards+0.00on par

Nairobi City Stars+0.00on par

Total goals

Under65
Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No58
Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AFC Leopards ↓

Nairobi City Stars →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–111%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

62%38%2.5

35%65%3.5

16%84%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

AFC Leopards or draw

71%

AFC Leopards or Nairobi City Stars

70%

Draw or Nairobi City Stars

59%

Winning margin

AFC Leopards wins by 2+

18%

Nairobi City Stars wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

AFC Leopards 1+ goals

69%

AFC Leopards 2+ goals

33%

AFC Leopards 3+ goals

11%

Nairobi City Stars 1+ goals

61%

Nairobi City Stars 2+ goals

24%

Nairobi City Stars 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

AFC Leopards (draw refunded)

58%

Nairobi City Stars (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

29%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AFC Leopards at home — creates 1.15, concedes 0.86 · 145 matches

Nairobi City Stars away — creates 1.02, concedes 1.20 · 84 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AFC Leopards attack 1.15 + Nairobi City Stars defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.17

Nairobi City Stars attack 1.02 + AFC Leopards defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

AFC Leopards scores more

41%

level

30%

Nairobi City Stars scores more

29%

AFC Leopards at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "AFC Leopards will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff