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Nairn County vs Brora Rangers — League #730 2026

Nairn County
Nairn County
FT
1 – 5
HT: 1 – 2
Brora Rangers
Brora Rangers
8/27/2024League #730League #730 · Highland League - 7Station Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Nairn County22%
×Draw19%
Brora Rangers59%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Nairn County
1.47
Brora Rangers
2.49

Brora Rangers creates 69% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 9 away

creates per match

Nairn County
1.60
Brora Rangers
2.78

allows per match

Nairn County
2.20
Brora Rangers
1.33

finishing

Nairn County+0.00on par
Brora Rangers+0.00on par

Total goals

75%Over
  • Over75
  • Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

71%Yes
  • Yes71
  • No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nairn County ↓

Brora Rangers →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–15%
0–26%
0–35%
0–43%
1
1–03%
1–17%
1–29%
1–37%
1–45%
2
2–02%
2–15%
2–26%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–23%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
75%25%3.5
55%45%4.5
35%65%

Double chance

Nairn County or draw
41%
Nairn County or Brora Rangers
81%
Draw or Brora Rangers
78%

Winning margin

Nairn County wins by 2+
9%
Brora Rangers wins by 2+
38%

Team goals

Nairn County 1+ goals
77%
Nairn County 2+ goals
43%
Nairn County 3+ goals
18%
Brora Rangers 1+ goals
92%
Brora Rangers 2+ goals
71%
Brora Rangers 3+ goals
45%

Draw no bet

Nairn County (draw refunded)
27%
Brora Rangers (draw refunded)
73%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
63%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nairn County at home — creates 1.60, concedes 2.20 · 5 matches

Brora Rangers away — creates 2.78, concedes 1.33 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nairn County attack 1.60 + Brora Rangers defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.47

Brora Rangers attack 2.78 + Nairn County defence 2.20 → ÷2 → 2.49

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Nairn County scores more
22%
level
19%
Brora Rangers scores more
59%

Brora Rangers at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Brora Rangers will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League #730: Nairn County 1–5 Brora Rangers

Brora Rangers beat Nairn County 5-1 in League #730 on August 27, 2024.

The match was played at Station Park in Nairn.