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Brora Rangers vs Nairn County — League #730 2026

Brora Rangers
Brora Rangers
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Nairn County
Nairn County
3/13/2024League #730League #730 · Highland League - 18Dudgeon Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Brora Rangers64%
×Draw19%
Nairn County17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Brora Rangers
2.31
Nairn County
1.10

Brora Rangers creates 110% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 7 away

creates per match

Brora Rangers
2.91
Nairn County
1.29

allows per match

Brora Rangers
0.91
Nairn County
1.71

finishing

Brora Rangers+0.00on par
Nairn County+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Brora Rangers ↓

Nairn County →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–18%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–07%
3–18%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Brora Rangers or draw
83%
Brora Rangers or Nairn County
81%
Draw or Nairn County
36%

Winning margin

Brora Rangers wins by 2+
41%
Nairn County wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Brora Rangers 1+ goals
90%
Brora Rangers 2+ goals
67%
Brora Rangers 3+ goals
40%
Nairn County 1+ goals
67%
Nairn County 2+ goals
30%
Nairn County 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Brora Rangers (draw refunded)
79%
Nairn County (draw refunded)
21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Brora Rangers at home — creates 2.91, concedes 0.91 · 11 matches

Nairn County away — creates 1.29, concedes 1.71 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Brora Rangers attack 2.91 + Nairn County defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 2.31

Nairn County attack 1.29 + Brora Rangers defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Brora Rangers scores more
64%
level
19%
Nairn County scores more
17%

Brora Rangers at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Brora Rangers will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Brora Rangers vs Nairn County

Brora Rangers beat Nairn County 2-1 in League #730 on March 13, 2024.

The match was played at Dudgeon Park in Brora.