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Nagykanizsai ULE vs Kaposvar — NB III - Southwest 2019

Nagykanizsai ULE
Nagykanizsai ULE
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Kaposvar
Kaposvar
3/17/2024NB III - SouthwestNB III - Southwest · Southwest - 20Olajbányász Sporttelep

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 83+ matches

Nagykanizsai ULE41%
×Draw24%
Kaposvar35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Nagykanizsai ULE
1.65
Kaposvar
1.50

Nagykanizsai ULE creates 10% more chances

Season form · 112 home / 83 away

creates per match

Nagykanizsai ULE
2.30
Kaposvar
1.90

allows per match

Nagykanizsai ULE
1.10
Kaposvar
1.01

finishing

Nagykanizsai ULE+0.00on par
Kaposvar+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nagykanizsai ULE ↓

Kaposvar →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
38%62%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Nagykanizsai ULE or draw
65%
Nagykanizsai ULE or Kaposvar
76%
Draw or Kaposvar
59%

Winning margin

Nagykanizsai ULE wins by 2+
21%
Kaposvar wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Nagykanizsai ULE 1+ goals
81%
Nagykanizsai ULE 2+ goals
49%
Nagykanizsai ULE 3+ goals
23%
Kaposvar 1+ goals
78%
Kaposvar 2+ goals
44%
Kaposvar 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Nagykanizsai ULE (draw refunded)
54%
Kaposvar (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nagykanizsai ULE at home — creates 2.30, concedes 1.10 · 112 matches

Kaposvar away — creates 1.90, concedes 1.01 · 83 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nagykanizsai ULE attack 2.30 + Kaposvar defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 1.65

Kaposvar attack 1.90 + Nagykanizsai ULE defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Nagykanizsai ULE scores more
41%
level
24%
Kaposvar scores more
35%

Nagykanizsai ULE at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Nagykanizsai ULE will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

NB III - Southwest: Nagykanizsai ULE 1–2 Kaposvar

Kaposvar beat Nagykanizsai ULE 2-1 in NB III - Southwest on March 17, 2024.

The match was played at Olajbányász Sporttelep in Nagykanizsa.