Kaposvar 2–3 Nagykanizsai ULE: Result & Stats

Kaposvar

FT

2 – 3

HT: 1 – 3

Nagykanizsai ULE

8/10/2025

NB III - Southwest · Southwest - 3Rákóczi Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 83+ matches

Kaposvar38%

×Draw24%

Nagykanizsai ULE38%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

KaposvarExpected goals in this matchNagykanizsai ULE

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.60

1.59

Kaposvar

1.60

Nagykanizsai ULE

1.59

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 83 home / 111 away

1.83

creates per match

1.95

1.23

allows per match

1.36

creates per match

Kaposvar

1.83

Nagykanizsai ULE

1.95

allows per match

Kaposvar

1.23

Nagykanizsai ULE

1.36

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Kaposvar+0.00on par

Nagykanizsai ULE+0.00on par

Total goals

Over62
Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kaposvar ↓

Nagykanizsai ULE →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–17%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

62%38%3.5

39%61%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Kaposvar or draw

62%

Kaposvar or Nagykanizsai ULE

76%

Draw or Nagykanizsai ULE

62%

Winning margin

Kaposvar wins by 2+

19%

Nagykanizsai ULE wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Kaposvar 1+ goals

80%

Kaposvar 2+ goals

47%

Kaposvar 3+ goals

22%

Nagykanizsai ULE 1+ goals

80%

Nagykanizsai ULE 2+ goals

47%

Nagykanizsai ULE 3+ goals

21%

Draw no bet

Kaposvar (draw refunded)

50%

Nagykanizsai ULE (draw refunded)

50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

53%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kaposvar at home — creates 1.83, concedes 1.23 · 83 matches

Nagykanizsai ULE away — creates 1.95, concedes 1.36 · 111 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kaposvar attack 1.83 + Nagykanizsai ULE defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.60

Nagykanizsai ULE attack 1.95 + Kaposvar defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.59

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Kaposvar scores more

38%

level

24%

Nagykanizsai ULE scores more

38%

Kaposvar at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Kaposvar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff