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Nagykanizsai ULE vs Gyirmót II — NB III - Southwest 2019

Nagykanizsai ULE
Nagykanizsai ULE
FT
4 – 2
HT: 2 – 0
Gyirmót II
Gyirmót II
10/16/2022NB III - SouthwestNB III - Southwest · Nyugati - 13Olajbányász Sporttelep

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Nagykanizsai ULE57%
×Draw20%
Gyirmót II23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Nagykanizsai ULE
2.24
Gyirmót II
1.35

Nagykanizsai ULE creates 66% more chances

Season form · 112 home / 38 away

creates per match

Nagykanizsai ULE
2.30
Gyirmót II
1.61

allows per match

Nagykanizsai ULE
1.10
Gyirmót II
2.18

finishing

Nagykanizsai ULE+0.00on par
Gyirmót II+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nagykanizsai ULE ↓

Gyirmót II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–18%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
48%52%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

Nagykanizsai ULE or draw
77%
Nagykanizsai ULE or Gyirmót II
80%
Draw or Gyirmót II
43%

Winning margin

Nagykanizsai ULE wins by 2+
35%
Gyirmót II wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Nagykanizsai ULE 1+ goals
89%
Nagykanizsai ULE 2+ goals
65%
Nagykanizsai ULE 3+ goals
38%
Gyirmót II 1+ goals
74%
Gyirmót II 2+ goals
39%
Gyirmót II 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Nagykanizsai ULE (draw refunded)
72%
Gyirmót II (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nagykanizsai ULE at home — creates 2.30, concedes 1.10 · 112 matches

Gyirmót II away — creates 1.61, concedes 2.18 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nagykanizsai ULE attack 2.30 + Gyirmót II defence 2.18 → ÷2 → 2.24

Gyirmót II attack 1.61 + Nagykanizsai ULE defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Nagykanizsai ULE scores more
57%
level
20%
Gyirmót II scores more
23%

Nagykanizsai ULE at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Nagykanizsai ULE will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

NB III - Southwest: Nagykanizsai ULE 4–2 Gyirmót II

Nagykanizsai ULE beat Gyirmót II 4-2 in NB III - Southwest on October 16, 2022.

The match was played at Olajbányász Sporttelep in Nagykanizsa.