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Gyirmót II vs Nagykanizsai ULE — NB III - Southwest 2019

Gyirmót II
Gyirmót II
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
Nagykanizsai ULE
Nagykanizsai ULE
4/16/2023NB III - SouthwestNB III - Southwest · Nyugati - 32Alcufer Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Gyirmót II31%
×Draw22%
Nagykanizsai ULE46%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gyirmót II
1.54
Nagykanizsai ULE
1.91

Nagykanizsai ULE creates 24% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 111 away

creates per match

Gyirmót II
1.71
Nagykanizsai ULE
1.95

allows per match

Gyirmót II
1.87
Nagykanizsai ULE
1.36

finishing

Gyirmót II+0.00on par
Nagykanizsai ULE+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gyirmót II ↓

Nagykanizsai ULE →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–26%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
45%55%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

Gyirmót II or draw
54%
Gyirmót II or Nagykanizsai ULE
78%
Draw or Nagykanizsai ULE
69%

Winning margin

Gyirmót II wins by 2+
15%
Nagykanizsai ULE wins by 2+
26%

Team goals

Gyirmót II 1+ goals
79%
Gyirmót II 2+ goals
45%
Gyirmót II 3+ goals
20%
Nagykanizsai ULE 1+ goals
85%
Nagykanizsai ULE 2+ goals
57%
Nagykanizsai ULE 3+ goals
30%

Draw no bet

Gyirmót II (draw refunded)
40%
Nagykanizsai ULE (draw refunded)
60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gyirmót II at home — creates 1.71, concedes 1.87 · 38 matches

Nagykanizsai ULE away — creates 1.95, concedes 1.36 · 111 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gyirmót II attack 1.71 + Nagykanizsai ULE defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.54

Nagykanizsai ULE attack 1.95 + Gyirmót II defence 1.87 → ÷2 → 1.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Gyirmót II scores more
31%
level
22%
Nagykanizsai ULE scores more
46%

Nagykanizsai ULE at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Nagykanizsai ULE will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Gyirmót II vs Nagykanizsai ULE

Nagykanizsai ULE beat Gyirmót II 3-0 in NB III - Southwest on April 16, 2023.

The match was played at Alcufer Stadion in Győr.