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Nagykanizsai ULE vs Főnix — NB III - Southwest 2019

Nagykanizsai ULE
Nagykanizsai ULE
FT
7 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Főnix
Főnix
5/4/2025NB III - SouthwestNB III - Southwest · Southwest - 27Olajbányász Sporttelep

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Nagykanizsai ULE71%
×Draw15%
Főnix14%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Nagykanizsai ULE
2.95
Főnix
1.25

Nagykanizsai ULE creates 136% more chances

Season form · 112 home / 15 away

creates per match

Nagykanizsai ULE
2.30
Főnix
1.40

allows per match

Nagykanizsai ULE
1.10
Főnix
3.60

finishing

Nagykanizsai ULE+0.00on par
Főnix+0.00on par

Total goals

78%Over
  • Over78
  • Under22

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nagykanizsai ULE ↓

Főnix →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–12%
0–21%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–05%
1–16%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–07%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–05%
4–16%
4–24%
4–32%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 84% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
92%8%2.5
78%22%3.5
59%41%4.5
39%61%

Double chance

Nagykanizsai ULE or draw
86%
Nagykanizsai ULE or Főnix
85%
Draw or Főnix
29%

Winning margin

Nagykanizsai ULE wins by 2+
51%
Főnix wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Nagykanizsai ULE 1+ goals
95%
Nagykanizsai ULE 2+ goals
79%
Nagykanizsai ULE 3+ goals
55%
Főnix 1+ goals
71%
Főnix 2+ goals
36%
Főnix 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Nagykanizsai ULE (draw refunded)
84%
Főnix (draw refunded)
16%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
62%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nagykanizsai ULE at home — creates 2.30, concedes 1.10 · 112 matches

Főnix away — creates 1.40, concedes 3.60 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nagykanizsai ULE attack 2.30 + Főnix defence 3.60 → ÷2 → 2.95

Főnix attack 1.40 + Nagykanizsai ULE defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 71%?"

Nagykanizsai ULE scores more
71%
level
15%
Főnix scores more
14%

Nagykanizsai ULE at 71% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 71% does not mean "Nagykanizsai ULE will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

NB III - Southwest: Nagykanizsai ULE 7–0 Főnix

Nagykanizsai ULE beat Főnix 7-0 in NB III - Southwest on May 4, 2025.

The match was played at Olajbányász Sporttelep in Nagykanizsa.