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Főnix vs Nagykanizsai ULE — NB III - Southwest 2019

Főnix
Főnix
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 0
Nagykanizsai ULE
Nagykanizsai ULE
10/20/2024NB III - SouthwestNB III - Southwest · Southwest - 12Főnix Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Főnix20%
×Draw20%
Nagykanizsai ULE60%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Főnix
1.18
Nagykanizsai ULE
2.17

Nagykanizsai ULE creates 84% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 111 away

creates per match

Főnix
1.00
Nagykanizsai ULE
1.95

allows per match

Főnix
2.40
Nagykanizsai ULE
1.36

finishing

Főnix+0.00on par
Nagykanizsai ULE+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Főnix ↓

Nagykanizsai ULE →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–18%
0–28%
0–36%
0–43%
1
1–04%
1–19%
1–210%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–02%
2–15%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Főnix or draw
40%
Főnix or Nagykanizsai ULE
80%
Draw or Nagykanizsai ULE
80%

Winning margin

Főnix wins by 2+
8%
Nagykanizsai ULE wins by 2+
37%

Team goals

Főnix 1+ goals
69%
Főnix 2+ goals
33%
Főnix 3+ goals
12%
Nagykanizsai ULE 1+ goals
89%
Nagykanizsai ULE 2+ goals
64%
Nagykanizsai ULE 3+ goals
36%

Draw no bet

Főnix (draw refunded)
25%
Nagykanizsai ULE (draw refunded)
75%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Főnix at home — creates 1.00, concedes 2.40 · 15 matches

Nagykanizsai ULE away — creates 1.95, concedes 1.36 · 111 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Főnix attack 1.00 + Nagykanizsai ULE defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.18

Nagykanizsai ULE attack 1.95 + Főnix defence 2.40 → ÷2 → 2.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Főnix scores more
20%
level
20%
Nagykanizsai ULE scores more
60%

Nagykanizsai ULE at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Nagykanizsai ULE will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

NB III - Southwest: Főnix 0–3 Nagykanizsai ULE

Nagykanizsai ULE beat Főnix 3-0 in NB III - Southwest on October 20, 2024.

The match was played at Főnix Park in Székesfehérvár.