Nagykanizsai ULE 3–1 Érdi VSE: Result & Stats

Nagykanizsai ULE

FT

3 – 1

HT: 3 – 0

Érdi VSE

4/12/2023

NB III - Southwest · Nyugati - 31Olajbányász Sporttelep

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 96+ matches

Nagykanizsai ULE53%

×Draw22%

Érdi VSE25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Nagykanizsai ULEExpected goals in this matchÉrdi VSE

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.94

1.25

Nagykanizsai ULE

1.94

Érdi VSE

1.25

Nagykanizsai ULE creates 55% more chances

Season form · 112 home / 96 away

2.30

creates per match

1.40

1.10

allows per match

1.57

creates per match

Nagykanizsai ULE

2.30

Érdi VSE

1.40

allows per match

Nagykanizsai ULE

1.10

Érdi VSE

1.57

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Nagykanizsai ULE+0.00on par

Érdi VSE+0.00on par

Total goals

Over62
Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nagykanizsai ULE ↓

Érdi VSE →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–110%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

62%38%3.5

39%61%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Nagykanizsai ULE or draw

75%

Nagykanizsai ULE or Érdi VSE

78%

Draw or Érdi VSE

47%

Winning margin

Nagykanizsai ULE wins by 2+

31%

Érdi VSE wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Nagykanizsai ULE 1+ goals

86%

Nagykanizsai ULE 2+ goals

58%

Nagykanizsai ULE 3+ goals

30%

Érdi VSE 1+ goals

71%

Érdi VSE 2+ goals

36%

Érdi VSE 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Nagykanizsai ULE (draw refunded)

68%

Érdi VSE (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nagykanizsai ULE at home — creates 2.30, concedes 1.10 · 112 matches

Érdi VSE away — creates 1.40, concedes 1.57 · 96 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nagykanizsai ULE attack 2.30 + Érdi VSE defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.94

Érdi VSE attack 1.40 + Nagykanizsai ULE defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Nagykanizsai ULE scores more

53%

level

22%

Érdi VSE scores more

25%

Nagykanizsai ULE at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Nagykanizsai ULE will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff