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Érdi VSE vs Nagykanizsai ULE — NB III - Southwest 2019

Érdi VSE
Érdi VSE
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Nagykanizsai ULE
Nagykanizsai ULE
3/24/2024NB III - SouthwestNB III - Southwest · Southwest - 21Érdi Sporttelep

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 97+ matches

Érdi VSE35%
×Draw24%
Nagykanizsai ULE41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Érdi VSE
1.48
Nagykanizsai ULE
1.61

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 97 home / 111 away

creates per match

Érdi VSE
1.60
Nagykanizsai ULE
1.95

allows per match

Érdi VSE
1.27
Nagykanizsai ULE
1.36

finishing

Érdi VSE+0.00on par
Nagykanizsai ULE+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Érdi VSE ↓

Nagykanizsai ULE →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
60%40%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Érdi VSE or draw
59%
Érdi VSE or Nagykanizsai ULE
76%
Draw or Nagykanizsai ULE
65%

Winning margin

Érdi VSE wins by 2+
17%
Nagykanizsai ULE wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Érdi VSE 1+ goals
77%
Érdi VSE 2+ goals
43%
Érdi VSE 3+ goals
19%
Nagykanizsai ULE 1+ goals
80%
Nagykanizsai ULE 2+ goals
48%
Nagykanizsai ULE 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Érdi VSE (draw refunded)
46%
Nagykanizsai ULE (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Érdi VSE at home — creates 1.60, concedes 1.27 · 97 matches

Nagykanizsai ULE away — creates 1.95, concedes 1.36 · 111 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Érdi VSE attack 1.60 + Nagykanizsai ULE defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.48

Nagykanizsai ULE attack 1.95 + Érdi VSE defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.61

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Érdi VSE scores more
35%
level
24%
Nagykanizsai ULE scores more
41%

Nagykanizsai ULE at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Nagykanizsai ULE will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

NB III - Southwest: Érdi VSE 0–1 Nagykanizsai ULE

Nagykanizsai ULE beat Érdi VSE 1-0 in NB III - Southwest on March 24, 2024.

The match was played at Érdi Sporttelep in Érd.