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Nagykanizsai ULE vs Andráshida — NB III - Southwest 2019

Nagykanizsai ULE
Nagykanizsai ULE
FT
2 – 1
Andráshida
Andráshida
10/10/2021NB III - SouthwestNB III - Southwest · Nyugati - 11Olajbányász Sporttelep

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Nagykanizsai ULE84%
×Draw10%
Andráshida6%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Nagykanizsai ULE
3.46
Andráshida
0.86

Nagykanizsai ULE creates 302% more chances

Season form · 112 home / 19 away

creates per match

Nagykanizsai ULE
2.30
Andráshida
0.63

allows per match

Nagykanizsai ULE
1.10
Andráshida
4.63

finishing

Nagykanizsai ULE+0.00on par
Andráshida+0.00on par

Total goals

79%Over
  • Over79
  • Under21

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nagykanizsai ULE ↓

Andráshida →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–11%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–05%
1–14%
1–22%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–010%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–08%
4–17%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 3–0 (10%) · grid covers 78% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
92%8%2.5
79%21%3.5
60%40%4.5
40%60%

Double chance

Nagykanizsai ULE or draw
94%
Nagykanizsai ULE or Andráshida
90%
Draw or Andráshida
16%

Winning margin

Nagykanizsai ULE wins by 2+
67%
Andráshida wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Nagykanizsai ULE 1+ goals
97%
Nagykanizsai ULE 2+ goals
85%
Nagykanizsai ULE 3+ goals
65%
Andráshida 1+ goals
58%
Andráshida 2+ goals
21%
Andráshida 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Nagykanizsai ULE (draw refunded)
94%
Andráshida (draw refunded)
6%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nagykanizsai ULE at home — creates 2.30, concedes 1.10 · 112 matches

Andráshida away — creates 0.63, concedes 4.63 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nagykanizsai ULE attack 2.30 + Andráshida defence 4.63 → ÷2 → 3.46

Andráshida attack 0.63 + Nagykanizsai ULE defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 0.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 84%?"

Nagykanizsai ULE scores more
84%
level
10%
Andráshida scores more
6%

Nagykanizsai ULE at 84% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 84% does not mean "Nagykanizsai ULE will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

NB III - Southwest: Nagykanizsai ULE 2–1 Andráshida

Nagykanizsai ULE beat Andráshida 2-1 in NB III - Southwest on October 10, 2021.

The match was played at Olajbányász Sporttelep in Nagykanizsa.