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Andráshida vs Nagykanizsai ULE — NB III - Southwest 2019

Andráshida
Andráshida
FT
0 – 1
Nagykanizsai ULE
Nagykanizsai ULE
4/13/2022NB III - SouthwestNB III - Southwest · Nyugati - 30Andráshida SC Sporttelep

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Andráshida17%
×Draw20%
Nagykanizsai ULE63%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Andráshida
1.06
Nagykanizsai ULE
2.21

Nagykanizsai ULE creates 108% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 110 away

creates per match

Andráshida
0.74
Nagykanizsai ULE
1.95

allows per match

Andráshida
2.47
Nagykanizsai ULE
1.37

finishing

Andráshida+0.00on par
Nagykanizsai ULE+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Andráshida ↓

Nagykanizsai ULE →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–18%
0–29%
0–37%
0–44%
1
1–04%
1–19%
1–210%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–02%
2–15%
2–25%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
63%37%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Andráshida or draw
37%
Andráshida or Nagykanizsai ULE
80%
Draw or Nagykanizsai ULE
83%

Winning margin

Andráshida wins by 2+
6%
Nagykanizsai ULE wins by 2+
40%

Team goals

Andráshida 1+ goals
65%
Andráshida 2+ goals
29%
Andráshida 3+ goals
9%
Nagykanizsai ULE 1+ goals
89%
Nagykanizsai ULE 2+ goals
65%
Nagykanizsai ULE 3+ goals
38%

Draw no bet

Andráshida (draw refunded)
21%
Nagykanizsai ULE (draw refunded)
79%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Andráshida at home — creates 0.74, concedes 2.47 · 19 matches

Nagykanizsai ULE away — creates 1.95, concedes 1.37 · 110 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Andráshida attack 0.74 + Nagykanizsai ULE defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.06

Nagykanizsai ULE attack 1.95 + Andráshida defence 2.47 → ÷2 → 2.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Andráshida scores more
17%
level
20%
Nagykanizsai ULE scores more
63%

Nagykanizsai ULE at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Nagykanizsai ULE will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Andráshida vs Nagykanizsai ULE

Nagykanizsai ULE beat Andráshida 1-0 in NB III - Southwest on April 13, 2022.

The match was played at Andráshida SC Sporttelep in Andráshida.