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Nagoya Grampus vs Kashiwa Reysol — J1 League 2018

Nagoya Grampus
Nagoya Grampus
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Kashiwa Reysol
Kashiwa Reysol
12/3/2023J1 LeagueJ1 League · Round 34Nagaragawa Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

Nagoya Grampus32%
×Draw25%
Kashiwa Reysol42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Nagoya Grampus
1.29
Kashiwa Reysol
1.51

Kashiwa Reysol creates 17% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 5 away

creates per match

Nagoya Grampus
1.51
Kashiwa Reysol
1.77

allows per match

Nagoya Grampus
1.25
Kashiwa Reysol
1.08

finishing

Nagoya Grampus-0.06on par
Kashiwa Reysol+0.23scores more

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nagoya Grampus ↓

Kashiwa Reysol →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Nagoya Grampus or draw
58%
Nagoya Grampus or Kashiwa Reysol
75%
Draw or Kashiwa Reysol
68%

Winning margin

Nagoya Grampus wins by 2+
14%
Kashiwa Reysol wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Nagoya Grampus 1+ goals
72%
Nagoya Grampus 2+ goals
37%
Nagoya Grampus 3+ goals
14%
Kashiwa Reysol 1+ goals
78%
Kashiwa Reysol 2+ goals
44%
Kashiwa Reysol 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Nagoya Grampus (draw refunded)
43%
Kashiwa Reysol (draw refunded)
57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nagoya Grampus at home — creates 1.51, concedes 1.25 · 11 matches

Kashiwa Reysol away — creates 1.77, concedes 1.08 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nagoya Grampus attack 1.51 + Kashiwa Reysol defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.29

Kashiwa Reysol attack 1.77 + Nagoya Grampus defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.51

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Nagoya Grampus scores more
32%
level
25%
Kashiwa Reysol scores more
42%

Kashiwa Reysol at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Kashiwa Reysol will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Nagoya Grampus vs Kashiwa Reysol

Nagoya Grampus and Kashiwa Reysol drew 1-1 in J1 League on December 3, 2023.

The match was played at Nagaragawa Stadium in Gifu.