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Kashiwa Reysol vs Nagoya Grampus — J1 League 2018

Kashiwa Reysol
Kashiwa Reysol
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Nagoya Grampus
Nagoya Grampus
11/8/2025J1 LeagueJ1 League · Round 36Sankyo Frontier Kashiwa Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

Kashiwa Reysol42%
×Draw25%
Nagoya Grampus33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kashiwa Reysol
1.53
Nagoya Grampus
1.33

Kashiwa Reysol creates 15% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 5 away

creates per match

Kashiwa Reysol
1.50
Nagoya Grampus
1.77

allows per match

Kashiwa Reysol
0.89
Nagoya Grampus
1.56

finishing

Kashiwa Reysol+0.33scores more
Nagoya Grampus-0.17scores less

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kashiwa Reysol ↓

Nagoya Grampus →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Kashiwa Reysol or draw
67%
Kashiwa Reysol or Nagoya Grampus
75%
Draw or Nagoya Grampus
58%

Winning margin

Kashiwa Reysol wins by 2+
21%
Nagoya Grampus wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Kashiwa Reysol 1+ goals
78%
Kashiwa Reysol 2+ goals
45%
Kashiwa Reysol 3+ goals
20%
Nagoya Grampus 1+ goals
74%
Nagoya Grampus 2+ goals
38%
Nagoya Grampus 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Kashiwa Reysol (draw refunded)
56%
Nagoya Grampus (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kashiwa Reysol at home — creates 1.50, concedes 0.89 · 6 matches

Nagoya Grampus away — creates 1.77, concedes 1.56 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kashiwa Reysol attack 1.50 + Nagoya Grampus defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.53

Nagoya Grampus attack 1.77 + Kashiwa Reysol defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Kashiwa Reysol scores more
42%
level
25%
Nagoya Grampus scores more
33%

Kashiwa Reysol at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Kashiwa Reysol will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Kashiwa Reysol vs Nagoya Grampus

Kashiwa Reysol beat Nagoya Grampus 1-0 in J1 League on November 8, 2025.

The match was played at Sankyo Frontier Kashiwa Stadium in Kashiwa.