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Nagoya Grampus vs Johor Darul Takzim FC — AFC Champions League 2018

Nagoya Grampus
Nagoya Grampus
FT
2 – 1
HT: 2 – 1
Johor Darul Takzim FC
Johor Darul Takzim FC
7/4/2021AFC Champions LeagueAFC Champions League · Group G - 5Rajamangala National Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Nagoya Grampus71%
×Draw17%
Johor Darul Takzim FC12%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Nagoya Grampus
2.48
Johor Darul Takzim FC
0.92

Nagoya Grampus creates 170% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 25 away

creates per match

Nagoya Grampus
3.00
Johor Darul Takzim FC
1.08

allows per match

Nagoya Grampus
0.75
Johor Darul Takzim FC
1.96

finishing

Nagoya Grampus+0.00on par
Johor Darul Takzim FC+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nagoya Grampus ↓

Johor Darul Takzim FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–18%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–15%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
43%57%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Nagoya Grampus or draw
88%
Nagoya Grampus or Johor Darul Takzim FC
83%
Draw or Johor Darul Takzim FC
29%

Winning margin

Nagoya Grampus wins by 2+
49%
Johor Darul Takzim FC wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Nagoya Grampus 1+ goals
92%
Nagoya Grampus 2+ goals
70%
Nagoya Grampus 3+ goals
44%
Johor Darul Takzim FC 1+ goals
60%
Johor Darul Takzim FC 2+ goals
23%
Johor Darul Takzim FC 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Nagoya Grampus (draw refunded)
85%
Johor Darul Takzim FC (draw refunded)
15%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nagoya Grampus at home — creates 3.00, concedes 0.75 · 4 matches

Johor Darul Takzim FC away — creates 1.08, concedes 1.96 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nagoya Grampus attack 3.00 + Johor Darul Takzim FC defence 1.96 → ÷2 → 2.48

Johor Darul Takzim FC attack 1.08 + Nagoya Grampus defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 71%?"

Nagoya Grampus scores more
71%
level
17%
Johor Darul Takzim FC scores more
12%

Nagoya Grampus at 71% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 71% does not mean "Nagoya Grampus will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

AFC Champions League: Nagoya Grampus 2–1 Johor Darul Takzim FC

Nagoya Grampus beat Johor Darul Takzim FC 2-1 in AFC Champions League on July 4, 2021.

The match was played at Rajamangala National Stadium in Bangkok.