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Johor Darul Takzim FC vs Nagoya Grampus — AFC Champions League 2018

Johor Darul Takzim FC
Johor Darul Takzim FC
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Nagoya Grampus
Nagoya Grampus
6/22/2021AFC Champions LeagueAFC Champions League · Group G - 1Rajamangala National Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Johor Darul Takzim FC36%
×Draw27%
Nagoya Grampus37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Johor Darul Takzim FC
1.23
Nagoya Grampus
1.27

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 24 home / 4 away

creates per match

Johor Darul Takzim FC
1.46
Nagoya Grampus
1.50

allows per match

Johor Darul Takzim FC
1.04
Nagoya Grampus
1.00

finishing

Johor Darul Takzim FC+0.00on par
Nagoya Grampus+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Johor Darul Takzim FC ↓

Nagoya Grampus →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Johor Darul Takzim FC or draw
63%
Johor Darul Takzim FC or Nagoya Grampus
73%
Draw or Nagoya Grampus
64%

Winning margin

Johor Darul Takzim FC wins by 2+
15%
Nagoya Grampus wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Johor Darul Takzim FC 1+ goals
71%
Johor Darul Takzim FC 2+ goals
35%
Johor Darul Takzim FC 3+ goals
13%
Nagoya Grampus 1+ goals
72%
Nagoya Grampus 2+ goals
36%
Nagoya Grampus 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Johor Darul Takzim FC (draw refunded)
49%
Nagoya Grampus (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Johor Darul Takzim FC at home — creates 1.46, concedes 1.04 · 24 matches

Nagoya Grampus away — creates 1.50, concedes 1.00 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Johor Darul Takzim FC attack 1.46 + Nagoya Grampus defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.23

Nagoya Grampus attack 1.50 + Johor Darul Takzim FC defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Johor Darul Takzim FC scores more
36%
level
27%
Nagoya Grampus scores more
37%

Nagoya Grampus at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Nagoya Grampus will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Johor Darul Takzim FC vs Nagoya Grampus

Nagoya Grampus beat Johor Darul Takzim FC 1-0 in AFC Champions League on June 22, 2021.

The match was played at Rajamangala National Stadium in Bangkok.