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Naftan vs FC Slutsk — Premier League 2018

Naftan
Naftan
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 2
FC Slutsk
FC Slutsk
11/8/2025Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 28Atlant Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 53+ matches

Naftan38%
×Draw26%
FC Slutsk36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Naftan
1.32
FC Slutsk
1.29

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 53 home / 118 away

creates per match

Naftan
1.06
FC Slutsk
0.87

allows per match

Naftan
1.72
FC Slutsk
1.58

finishing

Naftan+0.00on par
FC Slutsk+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Naftan ↓

FC Slutsk →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
27%73%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Naftan or draw
64%
Naftan or FC Slutsk
74%
Draw or FC Slutsk
62%

Winning margin

Naftan wins by 2+
17%
FC Slutsk wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Naftan 1+ goals
73%
Naftan 2+ goals
38%
Naftan 3+ goals
15%
FC Slutsk 1+ goals
72%
FC Slutsk 2+ goals
37%
FC Slutsk 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Naftan (draw refunded)
51%
FC Slutsk (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Naftan at home — creates 1.06, concedes 1.72 · 53 matches

FC Slutsk away — creates 0.87, concedes 1.58 · 118 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Naftan attack 1.06 + FC Slutsk defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.32

FC Slutsk attack 0.87 + Naftan defence 1.72 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Naftan scores more
38%
level
26%
FC Slutsk scores more
36%

Naftan at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Naftan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Naftan vs FC Slutsk

FC Slutsk beat Naftan 2-1 in Premier League on November 8, 2025.

The match was played at Atlant Stadium in Novopolotsk.