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FC Slutsk vs Naftan — Premier League 2018

FC Slutsk
FC Slutsk
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Naftan
Naftan
11/30/2024Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 30Stadyen Haradski

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

FC Slutsk45%
×Draw25%
Naftan29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC Slutsk
1.52
Naftan
1.17

FC Slutsk creates 30% more chances

Season form · 117 home / 51 away

creates per match

FC Slutsk
1.09
Naftan
0.94

allows per match

FC Slutsk
1.40
Naftan
1.94

finishing

FC Slutsk+0.00on par
Naftan+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Slutsk ↓

Naftan →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

FC Slutsk or draw
71%
FC Slutsk or Naftan
75%
Draw or Naftan
55%

Winning margin

FC Slutsk wins by 2+
23%
Naftan wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

FC Slutsk 1+ goals
78%
FC Slutsk 2+ goals
45%
FC Slutsk 3+ goals
20%
Naftan 1+ goals
69%
Naftan 2+ goals
33%
Naftan 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

FC Slutsk (draw refunded)
61%
Naftan (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Slutsk at home — creates 1.09, concedes 1.40 · 117 matches

Naftan away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.94 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Slutsk attack 1.09 + Naftan defence 1.94 → ÷2 → 1.52

Naftan attack 0.94 + FC Slutsk defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

FC Slutsk scores more
45%
level
25%
Naftan scores more
29%

FC Slutsk at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "FC Slutsk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: FC Slutsk 0–1 Naftan

Naftan beat FC Slutsk 1-0 in Premier League on November 30, 2024.

The match was played at Stadyen Haradski in Slutsk.