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Naftan vs FC Dnepr Mogilev — Premier League 2018

Naftan
Naftan
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
FC Dnepr Mogilev
FC Dnepr Mogilev
5/18/2024Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 9Stadyen Atlant

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 53+ matches

Naftan45%
×Draw25%
FC Dnepr Mogilev30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Naftan
1.56
FC Dnepr Mogilev
1.23

Naftan creates 27% more chances

Season form · 53 home / 69 away

creates per match

Naftan
1.06
FC Dnepr Mogilev
0.75

allows per match

Naftan
1.72
FC Dnepr Mogilev
2.07

finishing

Naftan+0.00on par
FC Dnepr Mogilev+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Naftan ↓

FC Dnepr Mogilev →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Naftan or draw
70%
Naftan or FC Dnepr Mogilev
75%
Draw or FC Dnepr Mogilev
55%

Winning margin

Naftan wins by 2+
23%
FC Dnepr Mogilev wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Naftan 1+ goals
79%
Naftan 2+ goals
46%
Naftan 3+ goals
21%
FC Dnepr Mogilev 1+ goals
71%
FC Dnepr Mogilev 2+ goals
35%
FC Dnepr Mogilev 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Naftan (draw refunded)
60%
FC Dnepr Mogilev (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Naftan at home — creates 1.06, concedes 1.72 · 53 matches

FC Dnepr Mogilev away — creates 0.75, concedes 2.07 · 69 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Naftan attack 1.06 + FC Dnepr Mogilev defence 2.07 → ÷2 → 1.56

FC Dnepr Mogilev attack 0.75 + Naftan defence 1.72 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Naftan scores more
45%
level
25%
FC Dnepr Mogilev scores more
30%

Naftan at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Naftan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Naftan 2–1 FC Dnepr Mogilev

Naftan beat FC Dnepr Mogilev 2-1 in Premier League on May 18, 2024.

The match was played at Stadyen Atlant in Novopolotsk.